Clinton New Democrats

Papers – happy to have re-writes -

NEW DEMOCRATS HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE
Clinton was what is called a “New Democrat”
old “New Deal” Democrats liked big government programs like Social Security and Medicare
wanted Government to regulate business pretty heavily
New Dems responded to American disillusion with Government & distaste for bureaucracies
“I don't like to be bossed”
BUT there are things where “externalities” from individual or corporate greed need to be curbed
Try to achieve results in least intrusive way – market incentives
Cut government spending and bureaucracy Gore “reinventing gGovernment”
cut 500,000 employees
Bush43 – huge increase federal employees and spending
Internet project – very libertarian – opens communication – beyond big-media filter
Telecommunications industry wants regulation limiting competition and taxes
New Dems instead LOVE open competition & communication– limit taxation – competitive markets
Gore has nurtured “Information Superhighway” earlier 1985 & 1989 with
funding for research on fibre-optics and hi-speed switches
set common protocols to make various networks ethernet, Arpanet .... compatible
Keep the “individual effort” part of capitalism – Welfare reform –
with incentives for work instead of punishment of those who see poor as evil or inferior

“LIBERAL” THINKING
Clinton always understands market oriented positions & argues his opponent's position before deciding
often better than the opponent can
Limbaugh ridicules empathy with others - “I feel your pain”
if world is divided into Good VS Evil why should you sympathize with EVIL?
Clinton is often indecisive – too open to other ideas to be politically or ideologically tidy & Simple
opposite Reagan and Bush43 – go with very simple gut reaction and simple stories
More free market programs than Gingrich – Muc much more than Bush43Republicans
Always a compromiser – from household where he loves alcoholic step-father
abuses mother – takes shot at Bill as teen – always looking to defuse conflict – anti-ideological
only stands up for poor & against increasing inequality
everything else is negotiable
AVOID WEDGE ISSUES AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE – PICK A COMMON SENSE MIDDLE
Abortion – reduce the number of abortions VS
Scream about morality and increase rates by hurting poor women economically
Clinton has Reaganesque talent for translating policy into emotions

Domestic policy rhetoric "every working person should have a chance"
strengthen "Earned Income" tax credit
Welfare Reform – increase child care & do not cut off health care "make work pay"
Fight Republican rhetoric of undeserving poor
Clinton Irritates Old-Left "Entitlement" Democrats
in Gerrymandered Poor & Black "Liberal" Districts
Due to continuing “scandals” Clinton can't get big programs through Republican Congress –
Small incrimental & persistent
WORKING CLASS & Poor Children BENEFITS
Head Start $2.8 billion to $5.3 Billion
Child Care $4.5 biillion to $9.3 billion
Earned Income Tax Credit $12.4 billion to $30.4 billion
$30 billion New tax credits for higher education – affects more people than GI Bill
$24 billion Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP)
(Bush43 cuts taxes on energy in Texas – covers lower % children through CHIP than any other state
fights increase in education funding – takes credit when he is overridden – predecessors did hard education work
leaves huge deficits for successor to fix)

BUDGET FIGHT & DEFICITS
Gingrich & Republican anti-government forces want MORE TAX CUTS FOR RICH to solve deficits
CLINTON - Right after election finds out that Bush Administration statements grossly underestimate
present and future deficits –
Clinton had promised tax cuts and social spending but now feels he must bite the bullet
Clinton - raise taxes ON UPPER INCOME & cut spending to make economy viable long term
everybody hates both – Republicans hate progressive taxes - Dems hate spending cuts
Republicans like Steve Forbes predict 39% marginal rates on upper income taxpayers will damage
incentives to invest - the onerous labor of sitting and investing millions
Reagan who made $1/2 million per movie and decided to make only 3 movies a year –
investors will sit on sidelines “American economy will be ruined; put your $$$ in Japan”
INSTEAD CLINTON economy CREATES EXCESS Investment – Bubble -
twice as much car, steel capacity - 3 times fibre-optic-cable capacity
Balanced budgets don't suck up private capital with deficits – Clinton gets savings rate up slightly
(now negative B43)
Bush43 Huge tax cuts for rich – deficits video
At first wants them because “surplus too big”
when deficits rise wants more cuts – especially Capital Gains – to “decrease deficits”
when we have "excess capacity" wants to encourage investment (more capital) instead of demand
Higher Taxes on labor relative to capital or energy hurts hiring – payroll tax etc -
Clinton - EITC & other pro-labor tax policy creates huge jobs growth
Bush43 Jobs growth does not match increase in population
Labor Market participation from 65% to aapprox 63%
Labor gets small fraction of it's usual share of growth
Corporate profits record highs level and %
Gore wants to cut payroll taxes and puit Social Security on slightly progressive general revenues

Discretionary non-defense spending (before Katrina)
Nixon/Ford: 6.8% per year
Carter: 2.0% per year
Reagan: -1.3% per year
Bush I: 4.0% per year
Clinton: 2.5% per year
Bush II: 8.2% per year
next person to be elected will be screwed – huge deficits – have to cut spending and raise tgaxes

HEALTH CARE
Why auto industry jobs are moving from Detroit to Ontario
Clinton has no mandate – 43% vote – cannot go for “Single Payer” politically – “socialized medicine”
Hillary takes over with Guilt-leverage from Bimbo-alarms
Universal coverage eliminates:

Free Riders people with low odds of illness (or poor) do not get insurance – use emergency rooms
very expensive, no preventative – whole system costs more

ADVERSE SELECTION
Insurance companies spend huge amounts (15% administrative costs) trying to figure out
who not to cover – avoid those with previously existing conditions who need care
diabetes and other chronic diseases not treated – huge costs at emergency, end of life
Religious Right & Terry Shiavo – $$$ hundreds of thousands - one person with liquid brain
if a blastula is “murder” Schiavo must be “life” too
the world is not over-populated – God Will Provide - we need every possible child,
but must not help poor mothers – encourage laziness
Large Co-operatives give:

Market leverage
Veterans Administration gets drugs for 1/3 retail cost –

Hillary Plan –
“Managed Competition” between a few large Blue-Cross-Blue-Shield type organizations
each large enough to negotiate low drug and service prices
compete with each other on providing “extras” above basic requirements

Republican Prescription Drug Benefit – Law forbids market competition Drug prices
even if Democrats were to change that thousands of plans – lots of research for elderly
not big enough to have market power against Big-Pharmaceuticals
Passed with Republican votes only – vote kept open for bribes and threats –
earmarks bribe – no hearings – Republicans increase by 100 times
Campaign contributions – K-Street Project – lobbying firms only hire Republicans
Campaign contibutions go to Republicans even heavier than usual
Stifle Government Accountant – forbid testimony – costs twice as much as claimed
so it can meet bogus budget limit

Health Savings Accounts – big deductions for rich taxpayers who already have coverage
remove rich and healthy from insurance pool

Prescription Drug Benefit - written by Pharmaceutical industry
NO negotiation for low prices – pay 3X more for drugs – get lots of campaign $$$$$ pharmaceutical
NO clear requirements for coverage – thousands of web-sites for elderly to investigate – SCAM?
Strong-Arm tactics – Republicans hold vote open while they bribe & threaten wavering members
Lie about cost – Government accountant silenced – cost underestimated – less than half reality
only talk short term – adds $8 Trillion long term debt – double in one year – equal all previous debt

Welfare Reform – just before 1996 election – Clinton Campaign promise -
Republicans put in gratuitous brutal provisions – limit food stamps and childhood disability payments
deny benefits to legal immigrants
Hope Clinton will veto – he doesn't – but gets rid of nasty stuff after winning election
in 1986 single mother eleave welfare makes $2,000 more, lose health care
1999 single mother makes $7,000 more & keep health benefits
Good policy to encourage work – poverty declines sharply – big increase labor market participation

FARM SUBSIDIES
Clinton cuts – take money from American consumers to subsidize
hi-Capital hi-petrochemical farming
Sugar Beets – keep people in Carribean poor – WTO fighting –
we're not as bad as Europe & Japan
cultural significance of rice farming – French want picturesque farms & traditional slow food irrigation & water projects – horrible to environment
Everglades – use wetlands as free sewer for agriculturel wastes & steal water for cities & irigation
Bush huge raise in subsidies – easy politically

NAFTA & FREE TRADE –
Clinton offends labor unions who want protection – gets passage on Bi-Partisan basis
Bush43 Goes against free-market principles for political purposes
2000 Election – promises steel tariffs to West Virginia and Pennsylvania –
close states in election – too much steel capacity – 30,000 jobs at risk – increase price steel
wins West Virginia (also promises to allow mountaintop removal coal mining –
weaken clean water rules (Federalist Society property rights fundamentalism Judges
This drives up Steel prices for the 30,000 at risk steel jobs
higher steel prices hurts 300,000 jobs in Appliance and auto parts industries – local Carrier layoff

ENVIRONMENT AND Pollution – tax, not regulation and bureaucrats - make industry pay for cleaning up their own mess
Pollution credit trading – if you cut pollution by a higher percentage than required
you get to sell to other companies that have more difficult problem cutting pollution
the cuts are accomplished with an incentive to achieve extra cuts where cheap
more pounds of pollution removed for less cost
Acid Rain Sulfur-dioxide pollution cuts achieved at 1/10 of expected cost with pollution-credit-trading
tend to remove pollution from the most primitive older industries – often in low-income area
which have less political clout – reduces “environmental ghettos” in
avoid pork and “agency capture”
Ralph Nader angry AT CLINTON-GORE– he shares the religious-right “good must punish evil”
but reverses it – ReligRight good capital & rich VS undeserving-poor laboring
Nader sees Good consumer VS evil corporation
Nader condems pragmatic market compromise – must go to court and find against evil corp
condemns Joan Claibrook for working for Carter – compromise with Nader's holy outlook
tells voters to vote Reagan not Carter , Bush, not Gore
Judges effectiveness by number of lawsuits (Exxon Valdiz case takes many years) or large Bureaucracy

New Democrats Adam Smith was right – markets are good – but a government of businessmen
is likely to be a device for enriching themselves and fleecing the poor - worry about :
AGENCY CAPTURE -
Bush 43 and Federal Energy Commission (or Cheney energy task force – industry writes report)
Ken Lay of ENRON gets to select head of Federal Energy Commission (gave Bush43 $2 million – Gore $20,000)
BIG HELP WITH ELECTION OF 2000
Enron traders get to manipulate energy prices with strategic shutdown of plants at hi-demand times
steal $28 billion from California
California gets $27 billion debt – dissatisfaction with government leads to Arnold Schwartznegger gov
fo fix deficit? Cut taxes on cars. Issue bonds to let thew future pay debt

Deregulation – Carter market oriented vs Reagan fat cats unregulated, avoid transparency
Trasparency & efficiency – Gore “competence is charisma”

ENERGY Gore pushes BTU – Energy tax – promotes alternative energy by market mechanism
REPUBLICANS DO ALTERNATIVE ENERGY THROUGH SUBSIDY - OPPORTUNITY FOR PORK
B43 & farm state Senators & reps give subsidies to favored political groups –
farm states disproportionate power -
Senate apportionment – 17% of population in sparsely populated states can elect 51 votes
Ethanol inefficient byt politically dynamite

SCIENCE
Newt Gets Rid of OFFICE OF TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT - independent scientific advisory
Newt's Political power NEEDS emotional issues – not careful practical assessment
Star Wars assessments by elite National Academy of Science - peer-reviewed
have angered Reganites
Condoms, AIDS PS Senator Doctor Frist must lie about AIDS spreading from tears and condom failure rates
Evolution – School boards do science – gets Christian Right excited – great political issue,

Global Warming –
Science is inconvenient politically & financially
campaign contributions Big Oil, Pharmaceuticals, Christian Right in jepardy
School Bards are better at Science than Scientists?
Republican party is party of Producing coalition: Oil Industry, mining, Industrial farming, Western anti-environmentalism, SUV's and NASCAR, long
Al Gore Book “Earth in the Balance” argues that not paying for costs of unbridled consumption
pollution, global warming, Mid-East involvement - endangers the future of the world

1994 ELECTION
Gingrich Contract with America – runs a national campaign – LlIMBAUGH & Religious right
Gingrich plays Hardball in House – kills seniority – puts loyalists into committee chairmanship
Term Limits – fits anti-Government rhetoric
removes expertise and institutional memory - those proud of their place in Government
Beginning of more centralized fundraising – House of Representatives especially
increase Earmarks -
BALANCED BUDGED AMENDMENT great rhetoric – bad policy
Medicare cuts & more tax cuts for rich

SHUTDOWN GOVERNMENT – battle to the finish – Gingrich strategy vs
Clinton “Deep cuts health care Education & new taxes on working people”
“Put your cuts on the table”
Gingrich whines - President dissed me on plane to mideast – pouting does not work on public wins
During shutdown young intern who has a history of seducing older men in HS flashes thong at
“ELVIS” President in empty White House without staff around – hanging around for negotiations
very nervous and depressed from election results – oops – no “SEX” just foreplay
depending on how old you are (Under 50's believe Oral is not “SEX” - over 50's reverse)
Gingrich – only accept measures that will pass with 100% of Republican votes – no compromise

Election 1996
Clinton spends $ early – paint Dole as ally of Gingrich Hard Right

Mid-East – distinction between B43 & Reagan VS Clinton & B41
after 200 Colin Powell wants to continue – Mid east, Korea, terror – Al
sets country on good fiscal path
be a slob – dems will be unpopular cleaning up our crap
Video – Okla City parallel 9-11 – President gets power

FOREIGN POLICY
Jimmy Carter “Human Rights” “Do unto others – it pays in the long run”
punish human rights violators by witholding aid or trade –
BUT : Talk to even the worst sinners – understand everyone - where they're coming from
know reality and history “Cultural sensitivity” – Liberal arts - understand from many POV Negotiate even with North Korea etc
Try to avoid strong support for thugs – encourage Samoza to leave Nicaragua
do not encourage SHAH to use massive force against demonstrators
SOMALIA Bush41 accepts this humanitarian logic – intervenes in Somalia to stop humanitarian tragedy
Clinton continues – Clan leader Aidid stealing humanitarian convoys – attempt to capture fails
“Black Hawk Down” - Powell left just before as head JCS –
Defense Secretary Aspin fired – accountability for errors not enough armor for mission
Makes Clinton scared to intervene in Rwanda genocide
MEXICO Clinton bails out Mexican economy with loans – paid back ahead of schedule
avoid disoorder and suffering -
Gingrich opposes loans to “drug-running-dictatorship”
AFGHANISTAN Clinton hits Bin Laden cammps – Repubs “wag the dog” get back to Monica
Democrats learn the lesson of failed states and disorder as primary problem -
create “Peace Keeping Institute” - Army loves – since Ike – Army should not do Peacekeeping
Right-wing-Republicans happy to punish evil Soviets
Condaleeza Rice essay against “Nation Building” -
HAITI
SOUTH AFRICA – boycott Apartheid & demand democracy vs Reagan against Sanctions
VIETNAM – recognize vs continue to punish
BOSNIA – intervene to stop Genocide
RWANDA
ISRAEL
1998 – Embassy Bombing Kenya and Tanzania
Clinton hits training camps in Afghanistan & “Asprin Factory” in Sudan owned by Bin Laden
Republicans claim “Wag the Dog” attempt to distract attention from Monica'