April 17 - Bush 41 to Clinton

APRIL 17
Two religions – Social Gospel - what you do to the least of these (the poor)
Religious right – exemplified by First Baptist Church of Dallas –
Largest and richest Protestant congregation in world –
gives least of any church to charity 0.4 % - bastion of political and theological reaction
BUSH1 ELECTION 1988
Dukakis – emphasizes competence & integrity - his highest value is open debate & study
“good jobs at good wages” & health care
Dukakis Refuses to go after Iran Contra or financial scandals –
Savings & loan hugest scandal in history

DEREGULATION – Carter and Reagan cut by 2/3 share of economy covered by tight regulations
When Carter de-regulates (Airlines, trucking) it's clean, carefully structured, bi-partisan
Reagan deregulation Savings & Loans VERY unsupervised from top – Reagan very disconnected
Reagan doesn't believe in government – why pay attention to doing it well?
Housing and Urban Development & Interior & Defense - many convictions for graft
Broadcasting – Reagan eliminates “Fairness Doctrine” - not so good on facts – loves emotions
Media Consolidation – Reagan guts Anti-Trust - large corporations can buy many outlets
look at bottom line – do not want to offend politicians
Entertainment over News and Analysis
Smaller companies have tradition of seriousness -
Local outlets can investigate government on the ground
Big outlets consolidate – taped handouts and sensationalism
Rupert Murdoch – FOX – hires Republican campaign officials to run
has already elected Margaret Thatcher in England – hard-ight Social-Darwinist Union-Buster
health care cutter
Decry Immorality of underclass front page Tabloid – naked lady to uppset moralist readers on page 3 In US Moral-Decline news commentators - “John Kerry wanted to Assassinate Senators”
Temptation Island show – Moral decline
COPS – nasty drug addled minorities and red-necks
America's Most Wanted – fear – put more people in Jail – US highest rates in world

DUKAKIS refuses to attack, or rebut Bush Attacks – “Ice man”
Loves public policy & health-care – wants election about them
“Competence is Charisma” Gore
Attacks don't work so well for party which believes in government action
B41 later investigates Bill Clinton's handling of Arkansas S&L's – clean as a whistle – no slack for friends
Bush goes Negative as innoculation after Reagan's financial and foreign policy scandals
Bush claims he was “out of loop – unaware” Iran-Contra - works for Reagan – known for sleeping
But there were near fist-fights over arms-for-hostages in cabinet meetings -
makes Bush denials dubious
missiles for hostages to Iran, covert-terrorist war in Nicaragua against-law
Bush pardons many before truth can come out in court
many on right think breaking law is OK if you're fighting commies
Negative tactics dominate – Drag the other guy down too - make voters ignore bread & butter issues
Bush41 Fires Karl Rove twice –1980, 1988 – that's TOO DIRTY –
Rove leaking secrets to Robert Novak both times
B41 demonized “L” word – failure to execute death penalty - “card carrying membver ACLU”
Free speech and free-thought must mean lack of religious certainty & patriotic fervor
Pictures of Willie Horton – black rapist = “Soft on Crime”
(Republican initiated furloughs – similar to Federal program – media does little truth-checking

Negative Campaigns drive down turnout
only 54.2% eligible voters turn out in 1988 – lowest since 1924
This makes small zealous minorities much more powerful
organizations which can cheerlead & anger voters
talk radio or fundamentalist churches
Negative campaigns Reinforces underlying message “GOVERNMENT IS THE PROBLEM”

Economic uncertainties created for middle class by electing Social Darwinists
creates receptive ground for fear politics – demonizing some group or individual
anti-abortion most zealous in farm-country with diminishing agriculture – agribusiness
and rust-belt de-industrializing cities
Reagan Deficits suck up capital for investment – drive down savings rate –
increase economic uncertainty
America from creditor to debtor in Reagan - cut tax & high spend help drive up inflation long term
juice economy short term - good politics for Reagan

COLD WAR ENDS
Gorby desperate to do Glasnost – openness and Peristroika – economic reform –
wants arms control agreements to reduce spending – fights against hawks in Kremlin
Reagan helps Kremlin-hawks sow paranoia – delays reductions for a few years
Star wars delusions & harsh rhetoric makes Kremlin suspect first strike plans
Eastern Europe in constant rebellion – can see West Europe on TV
Wall comes down – hardly anyone in Eastern Europe believes in Soviet Puppet governments
Soviets have experienced direct occupation in Afghanistan – want no more
Republican Right - “Reagan won by putting US $3billion in debt and talking pretty”
Republican Right would have attacked a Democrat harder on ratifying treaties –
Reagan history helped credibility just like when Nixon did Detente with USSR & China
BUT Russian defense spending flat in 1980's – we're the only one spending stupidly
Communism had already lost China and Vietnam to “market reforms” in 1979
they are getting much better economically
Reagan leaves us with many more nukes to clean up – great terror danger – not well secured in Russia
Afghanistan left in Anarchy because Reagan will not negotiate a settlement to stabilize
empower Bin-Laden – training camps,
Drug laws – moralists of Religious Right especially enthusiastic –
Sex & Drugs & Rock and Roll resentment
also subsidizes Bin Laden and other purveyors of violence
Makes NRA and Arms Industry happy
Reagan also helps Bin Laden by running away from Beruit after ill-considered intervention
Lack of serious efforts to get peace Israel and palestine
will offend Religious Right (B43 also follows this pattern)
B41 and Clinton work hard for settlement – unpopular with Old Testament True-believers

Panama invasion very successful – Very popular with Public
Remove Noriega – Panama Canal is returning to Panama in 2000 – he is corrupt and nasty
We liked Noriega when he helped support Contra thugs in Nicaragua - they're having elections
we no longer need his help

IRAQ WAR I DESERT STORM
Iraq invades after miscalculations – Many Republicans – Rumsfeld, etc - try to be friendly
need an ally against Iran – let him slaughter Kurds & help with intelligence for gas attacks
Sadaam warns about Kuwait perfidy – slant drilling? Kuwait won't forgive debt from Iran Iraq war
very costly war – many years – after we're not Iran's ally anymore (1979) we help both sides
Our diplomats very fuzzy – think Sadaam intends only small incursion
Bush41 HONEST DEBATE AFTER ELECTION
No “if you disagree on war you are a traitor” Dems split - Gore votes for war
B41 assembles large coalition – consults other countries – they pay for war –
we make small profit for our services
Not much post-war planning
B41 encourages Kurds and Shiites to revolt but does not destroy Republican Guard
Ugly TV pictures of “Highway of death” stop war
General Schwartzkof allows Sadaam to use helicopters to suppress revolt
We eventually set up no-fly-zones to protect Kurds a lot, Shiites a little
Jay Garner to Kurdish area : let them do politics – intervene only to stop military aggression.


ANTI-GOVERNMENT COALITION
largest Coalition in history target Government in Washington as the greatest enemy
Anti-tax – Grover Norquist – Americans for Tax Reform
people like Jesus and Mohammed who think the rich have obligations – inheritance tax
are like Hitler because they single out the rich like Hitler singled out Jews
Want heriditary Aristocracy on Social Darwinist grounds
National Rifle Organization – no ocompromise on absolute right to assault weapons
take away weapons like Hitler did – we beat the Commies & NAZI's – last threat inside Beltway
Jack booted thugs – Terry Blow Up Federal Building in Oklahoma City
Christian Coalition
Small Business – mandates for health care coverage?
Property Rights – Federalist Society - $$$ = Speech – environmental laws are stealing
possible profits from development from Landowners –
endangered species VS dams & irrigation farmers & subsidized water to grow crops in desert
Nader New Left – anti-Globalization - Corporate conspiracy against labor

RUSH LIMBAUGH & Talk Radio
Moralist about AIDS – throw drug addicts in jail forever – turns out to be Oxycontin addict –
using enough to numb a medium sized city
The other leading moralist – Bill Bennett – education secretary - turns out to be a gambling addict
Amazing number of anti-gay fanatics on Right turn out to br closeted gays
faith based and anger based communities do not google facts – do not like complexity
Bill O'Reilly (Feb 5 2002) tells NOW prez 58% single moms on welfare – actual number 14%
“You can’t say no Miss Gandy. That’s the stat. You can’t just dismiss it …. it’s 58%.
That’s what it is from the federal government“
Affirmative actionhas been taken to extremes: (Feb 26 2002)
“university system in Florida right now 37% of the 10 universities are black” Black enrollment that year was 18%.
When guest tried to correct Oreilly cut off “I got the numbers and they’re dead on”.
US gives smaller % GDP than other developed nations “That’s not true” (5/8/2001) and his faith-based believers believe .
Registered Republican – “the accusation on my voting record is simply a lie” – Franken prints picture of record p75 Lies & lying Liars...

POLITICS AS WAR
Voting rights Act 1965 – Blacks want affirmative action to give them Black representatives
New-Left Existential view – only “authentic” Black representatives will do
Gerrymandering to concentrate black voters means
all surrounding districts become even more hard-right anti-poor
New-Left “Democratic reform” Primaries to select candidates with VERY LOW turnout
motivated minorities – excited by FEAR or HATE thrn out
House of Representatives even more polarized – talk Radio and Churches

ELECTION 1992
Bush I inherits Reagans debt and his costituency – “Read My Lips – no new taxes” pledge hurts
he has to raise taxes or debt will go totally crazy
Christian Right also disappointed – not genuine true-believer or gifted actor

ROSS PEROT- takes more votes from Bush – lets Clinton win with 43%
GOOFINESS – Bush and CIA sabotage his daughter's wedding?
DEFICITS – Reagan Bush from under $1 Trillion to over $4 Trillion
Perot can draw attention to deficits with 30 minute commercials & charts
JOBS - Giant Sucking Sound - Anti-NAFTA North American Free Trade Agreement
Clinton B41 agree NAFTA - all good economies are integrating – European Union – Mercosur South America
Adam Smith – Silk Road & Eurasia – larger markets are more efficient in 10,000 years evidence
Low wage jobs do move to poorer countries –
hurt low wage labor rich countries – small farmers everywhere
trend to equalization of all countries in long term is good for world peace
Inequality also increases – progressive taxation more necessary than ever
health care & educate poor children – more education always required as technology increases

BUDGET FIGHT & DEFICITS
Gingrich & Republican anti-government coalition want MORE TAX CUTS FOR RICH
CLINTON - Right after election finds out that Bush Administration statements grossly underestimate
present and future deficits –
Clinton had promised tax cuts and social spending but now feels he must bite the bullet
Clinton - raise taxes ON UPPER INCOME & cut spending to make economy viable long term
everybody hates both
Republicans like Steve Forbes predict 39% marginal rates on upper income taxpayers Will damage incentives for the onerous labor of sitting and investing their millions
Like Reagan who made $1/2 million per movie and decided to make only 3 movies a year –
investors will sit on sidelines
INSTEAD CLINTON CREATES EXCESS investment – Bubble -
Balanced budgets don't suck up private capital with deficits – Clinton gets savings rate up slightly
(now negative B43)

Gore pushes BTU – Energy tax – promotes alternative energy by market mechanism
REPUBLICANS DO ALTERNATIVE ENERGY THROUGH SUBSIDY - OPPORTUNITY FOR PORK
B43 & farm state Senators & reps give subsidies to favored political groups –
farm states disproportionate power -
Senate apportionment – 17% of population in sparsely populated states can elect 51 votes
Ethanol

Taxes on labor hurt hiring – payroll tax etc -
Clinton EITC & other pro-labor tax policy huge jobs growth

NAFTA – Clinton offends labor unions who want protection – gets passage on Bi-Partisan basis
GAYS IN MILITARY
Clinton promises in Campaign – Republicans will override Executive order with easy 2/3
Military pissed – threaten to resist
Average voter wonders why this is the First Priority
Right-Wing Pro-Military & Religious Right highly motivated for next election

HEALTH CARE
Clinton no mandate – 43% vote – cannot go for Single Payer
Hillary takes over with Guilt-leverage from Bimbo-alarms

FARM SUBSIDIES
Clinton cuts – take money from American consumers to subsidize
hi-Capital hi-petrochemical farming
Sugar Beets – keep people in Carribean poor – WTO fighting –
we're not as bad as Europe & Japan
cultural significance of rice farming – French want picturesque farms & traditional slow food irrigation & water projects – horrible to environment
Everglades – use wetlands as free sewer for agriculturel wastes & steal water for cities & irigation

CLINTON Domestic policy rhetoric "every working person should have a chance"
strengthen "Earnewd Income" tax credit
Welfare Reform – increase child care and do not cut off health care
"make work pay"
Fight Republican rhetoric of undeserving poor
Clinton Irritates Old-Left "Entitlement" Democrats & Gerrymandered Poor & Black "Liberal" Districts
Good policy to encourage work – poverty declines sharply

1994 ELECTION
Gingrich Contract with America – runs a national campaign - Rush Limbaugh sets tone
Gingrich plays Hardball in House – kills seniority – puts loyalists into committee chairmanship
Term Limits – fits anti-Government rhetoric
removes expertise and institutional memory - those proud of their place in Government
Beginning of more centralized fundraising – House of Representatives especially
increase Earmarks -
Gets Rid of OFFICE OF TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT - independent scientific advisory
Political power means emotional issues – not careful practical assessment -
Star Wars assessments have angered Reganites
Condoms, AIDS , evolution, Global Warming –
Science is inconvenient politically & financially
campaign contributions Big Oil, Pharmaceuticals, Christian Right in jepardy
School Bards are better at Science than Scientists?
BALANCED BUDGED AMENDMENT great rhetoric – bad policy
Medicare cuts & more tax cuts for rich