gas taxes are good for many reasons

The Pigou Club Manifesto
In today's Wall Street Journal, I offer a manifesto for the Pigou Club, the elite group of pundits and policy wonks with the good sense to advocate higher Pigovian taxes. (Click here for a partial membership list.)

Raise the Gas Tax
By N. Gregory Mankiw

With the midterm election around the corner, here's a wacky idea you won't often hear from our elected leaders: We should raise the tax on gasoline. Not quickly, but substantially. I would like to see Congress increase the gas tax by $1 per gallon, phased in gradually by 10 cents per year over the next decade. Campaign consultants aren't fond of this kind of proposal, but policy wonks keep pushing for it. Here's why:

The environment. The burning of gasoline emits several pollutants. These include carbon dioxide, a cause of global warming. Higher gasoline taxes, perhaps as part of a broader carbon tax, would be the most direct and least invasive policy to address environmental concerns.

Road congestion. Every time I am stuck in traffic, I wish my fellow motorists would drive less, perhaps by living closer to where they work or by taking public transport. A higher gas tax would give all of us the incentive to do just that, reducing congestion on streets and highways.

Regulatory relief. Congress has tried to reduce energy dependence with corporate average fuel economy standards. These CAFE rules are heavy-handed government regulations replete with unintended consequences: They are partly responsible for the growth of SUVs, because light trucks have laxer standards than cars. In addition, by making the car fleet more fuel-efficient, the regulations encourage people to drive more, offsetting some of the conservation benefits and exacerbating road congestion. A higher gas tax would accomplish everything CAFE standards do, but without the adverse side effects.

The budget. Everyone who has studied the numbers knows that the federal budget is on an unsustainable path. When baby-boomers retire and become eligible for Social Security and Medicare, either benefits for the elderly will have to be cut or taxes raised. The most likely political compromise will include some of each. A $1 per gallon hike in gas tax would bring in $100 billion a year in government revenue and make a dent in the looming fiscal gap.

Tax incidence. A basic principle of tax analysis -- taught in most freshman economics courses -- is that the burden of a tax is shared by consumer and producer. In this case, as a higher gas tax discouraged oil consumption, the price of oil would fall in world markets. As a result, the price of gas to consumers would rise by less than the increase in the tax. Some of the tax would in effect be paid by Saudi Arabia and Venezuela.

Economic growth. Public finance experts have long preached that consumption taxes are better than income taxes for long-run economic growth, because income taxes discourage saving and investment. Gas is a component of consumption. An increased reliance on gas taxes over income taxes would make the tax code more favorable to growth. It would also encourage firms to devote more R&D spending to the search for gasoline substitutes.

National security. Alan Greenspan called for higher gas taxes recently. "It's a national security issue," he said. It is hard to judge how much high oil consumption drives U.S. involvement in Middle Eastern politics. But Mr. Greenspan may well be right that the gas tax is an economic policy with positive spillovers to foreign affairs.

Is it conceivable that the policy wonks will ever win the battle with the campaign consultants? I think it is. Even after a $1 hike, the U.S. gas tax would still be less than half the level in, say, Great Britain, which last I checked is still a democracy. But don't expect those vying for office to come around until the American people recognize that while higher gas taxes are unattractive, the alternatives are even worse.

optional short but "big-picture" take-home essay

Final Exam “big picture” essays OPTIONAL. Write essay(s) that play with the concepts below.
You won’t be able to cover everything so pick neat examples and make it tight
Make an outline. Don’t just throw anything you can remember at me in no particular order. Simplistic generalizations without qualification & good examples will get low grades. Anticipating counterarguments is very good. Mail to my e-mail by Sunday night. Bring a hard copy if you can. Abbreviations (B43, JFK, LBJ, JFD for Dulles) are fine. 2 page maximum unless you absolutely need
Foreign policy.
That brilliant geopolitical thinker Mark Twain (someone today's anti-imperialists can legitimately claim as an intellectual and moral forebear) once said "Always do right. This will gratify some people and astonish the rest."
Jimmy Carter generally agreed with Twain, and said "Human Rights" were primary. Whenever possible / practical we should be on the side of good. Clinton agreed and apologized for when we hadn't lived up to our principles of "all men =" "rule of law" etc. Both Clinton & Bush 41 (New World Order) tried to stop genocide & mass starvation in Somalia (& Clinton later in Bosnia & Kosovo.) Clinton apologized for not stopping Genocide in Rwanda.
A Pure "Realist" looks only
at American interests (Oil or military balance of power) and makes decisions just on that Basis. Nixon was mostly a realist, concerned with American/ world balance of power (with Kissinger). Almost everyone compromises with "realism" even if they have an ideological disposition to do otherwise. We can't fix everything.
Condi Rice wrote a "realist" essay in 2000 which disapproved of Clinton's humanitarian interventions in Somalia, Bosnia & Kosovo.
Some foreign policy thinkers believe America does not have to "do right." We can torture or overthrow or support thugs either because America is "a city on a hill" & uniquely "holy" or because the local situation (Vietnam, Guatemala, Iran) is part of a "good versus evil" struggle like the Cold War or the “War on Teror” so we can do anything in the name of this "good vs evil" struggle. If Guatemala or Iran or Vietnam are not "with us" in this big struggle they're "against us" so ....
•John Foster Dulles (FD), Ronald Reagan (RR), Bush43 (B43) under Cheney, and Nixon (NX) (in a different way but same results in Latin America & Vietnam) had strong commonalities in Foreign policy. They saw the world in certain ways and acted accordingly. Their outlooks often combined $$$ interests or oil and the rhetoric of America’s unique holiness.
Their actions contrast strongly with Jimmy Carter (JC), Bill Clinton (BC), JFK (usually except Cuba) & Bush41 (B41)(usually). Try to explain the “big picture” using Latin America perhaps with the most extreme contrasts. Mention carefully selected example(s) for every generalization. Talk about views (A) that emphasize “good vs evil” “with us or against us” “enemy of my enemy is my friend” “must not talk to evil” & US right to overthrow other governments & impose our values
Analyze & give cogent examples of the competing "Human rights" views (B) which generally include trying to understand the history & cultures of others & their grievances & respect their views “do unto others …” “all men are equal”, Internationalism & international law.
How have the paradigms worked in Vietnam?
North Korea recently (including Plutonium & Jimmy Carter in 1994 and B43 after 2000) Cuba?
Afghanistan since late 1970’s (including Bin Laden)?
Latin America vs Europe & Japan?


Economic “Big Picture”
Economics
The richest Americans (top 1/10 of 1%) now pay much lower tax rates than you will. CEO’s get hundreds of $$millions for bad performances while the companies with lower skews between top CEO and average workers make the best profits. Most Americans worry more about inflation from raising the minimum wage or moderately high taxes on the VERY rich than they do about millions of children in poverty or radically decreased opportunity for working middle class & poor. Congressional and B43 Republicans are passionately determined that Paris Hilton & Frist & Bush kids get many unearned $$millions tax free while low-income-3-job families pay high payroll taxes on their first dollar.
The New Deal created a huge middle-class in America. The Reagan Bush-43 tax revolution has radically changed the “shape” of American wealth distribution and opportunity. They have also had huge implications for future generations
Talk about why and how this happened. Mention as many important details as you can. You could include “state versus federal progressivity”, social security “reform” under Reagan, deficits, “two-free-lunch-economics” “Laffer curve”, Milton Friedman and Hayek, any illusions Americans might have

QUIZZES AFTER MIDTERM with answers

10/23 EXTERNALITIES ESSAYS tell what economic and political principles (which we have studied in this course) are reflected in this proposal & the description of our economy now
taxing carbon dioxide emissions instead of employees' pay in a bid to stem global warming will help by Penalizing the negative externality of pollution instead of penalizing employment, thus increasing employment & reducing inequality & poverty and tightening up the labor market.
If your political principles included “all men are created equal” you wouldn’t dump your global-warming-externalities on Bangladesh and the more-vulnerable rest of the world. That makes this proposal progressive / Christian / American if foreigners are equal too.
If you believe economically that people should pay for their externalities, then taxing the carbon in the oil or coal would make sense by “paying” for the externality while discouraging the production of more CO2.

The chairman of the Federal reserve, Ben Bernacke, met recently with the members of the Fed Board to discuss ___level of economic activity__ .
If The Fed sees signs that indicate the threat of inflation the fed may __raise_ interest rates.
“SCLC” stands for Southern Christian Leadership Conference.
SCLC was dominated by Martin Luther King and other Black male preachers.
The event that led to SCLC’s formation was the Birmingham Bus Boycott.
“SNCC” stands for Student Non Violent Coordination Committee
SNCC began with LUNCH COUNTER SIT-INS which challenged the sanctity of PRIVATE PROPERTY
SNCC had _DIFFUSED DEMOCRATIC_ leadership.
SNCC was (A) far more (B) about equally (C) far less male-dominated than SCLC.
NAACP focused on _LITIGATION_ as the best way forward for Civil Rights
SNCC & SCLC focused on (2) _NON-VIOLENT DIRECT ACTION_
Russia lost (A) about the same (B) twice (C) 10 times (D) 90 times
the number of people the US lost in WWII.
A little kid became a culture hero in Russia for __TURNING IN HIS PARENTS_
In 1945 the American people thought of Josef Stalin as _NICE UNCLE JOE
Stalin expected that US and Great Britain _TO GO TO WAR BECAUSE CAPITALISTS ALWAYS DO after WWII.
US policy after WWII was guided by the basic principle of avoiding __THE MISTAKES AFTER WWI WHICH CAUSED WWII INCLUDING PUNITIVE PEACES, ECONOMIC CHAOS, NO INTERNATIONAL LAW ENFORCEMENT ORGANIZATION____
This general US policy (above) meant that Germany must _BE REBUILT__
The Soviets believed, in contrast, that Germany __MUST BE CRUSHED AND KEPT UNDER CONTROL
(11/3/2006) Assume “you” are young working-class American, not inheriting over $5 million & not holding large amounts of stocks or bonds. 15 words or LESS clearly written for each question. (1) Has Bush economic policy reduced or increased your tax load over time & why (2 reasons)? Your tax load has increased because B43 has increased spending faster than any president since WWII – not vetoing ANY spending. There is no free lunch, someone will have to pay the more-than-doubled debt. Since the tax load has shifted from the top brackets (most cuts for top 1%) to workers (payroll taxes from ~6% 1950 to over 40% now) you will have to pay a higher proportion of that debt.
(2) What would the effect on intergenerational equity (taxpayers in the future compared to taxpayers now) of a tax increase? It would decrease the debt for you and your kids by making taxpayers now pay for more of current spending.
(3) What did Dulles do in Vietnam around 1956? He stifled elections because Ho Chi Minh would have won big-time (Dulles saw the world in good vs evil “appeasement of Hitler” terms. If you’re not explicitly capitalist, like all good Christians, you’re not our friend & we want you gone so our Catholic friend can rule.
(4) In Egypt around 1956 Dulles _cut off funding for the Aswan High Dam__
because __Nasser wanted to be independent, not puppet & bought arms from Czechoslovakia _ then Nasser _Nationalized the Suez Canal to get $$$ for Dam and to stick it to colonial powers. Nasser also encouraged Algerian revolt against French colonialism.
(5) in Iran Dulles _thru CIA run by brother fomented riots to make Iran appear unstable & threatened by Communism and _OVERTTHREW__ a _ Democratic_ government because _The British needed the oil $$ (and we grabbed half) and we wanted a pliable puppet – the Shah _
(6) In the 1950’s & 1960’s the fastest growing religions were (pick 2) (a) Mainline (b) Fundamentalist (c) Social Gospel (d) Evangelical (e) New-Age
(7) These religions were more sympathetic to the Cold War Mentality because they divided the world into __GOOD VERSUS EVIL AND WE’RE THE GOOD __
(8)The leader America installed in Vietnam was (religion) __CATHOLIC___
ruling a _BUDDHIST__ country.
(10) Guatemalan politics 1945-1954 was inspired by example of __NEW DEAL IN AMERICA.
(11)The Guatemalans wanted _LAND REFORM like the US did in Germany & Japan
(12) Eisenhower’s last speech warned against influence of _MILITARY INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX _
(13) Of recent politicians Ike’s nightmare would be DICK CHENEY WHO MADE HUGE $$$ ($60 MILLION) RUNNING PRIVATE COMPANY HALIBURTON WHICH GETS NO-BID CONTRACTS FROM MILITARY THANKS TO HIS “PRIVATIZATION” OF MANY FUNCTIONS.
11/10 quiz“Domino theory” said if Vietnam fell, Commie-Chinese influence would spread throughout Southeast Asia. Instead there was war between VIETNAM & CHINA.
A Bob Corker radio ad used word “Black” 6 times in 26 seconds, an example of WEDGE politics.
Bill Clinton had (a) increased (b) decreased taxes on the rich so we had a projected (a) surplus (b) deficit in our budget over the next 10 years.
Child poverty has _INCREASED` by 1.3 MILLION thanks to B43 tax policy. (direction & number guess)
JFK ran on a “MISSILE ” gap which was total BS.
LBJ waited to introduce his Voting rights bill until after BLOODY SUNDAY SUPPRESSION OF MLK’s VOTING RIGHTS MARCH SHOWN ON TV
Ghetto economies suffered because technology and capital investment reduced the
number of jobs in MANUFACTURING & HEAVY INDUSTRY
More jobs were being created in the _SERVICE_ sector of the economy.
LBJ ordered Hoover (FBI) so Federal govt finally investigated racist murders in
(city & State) _PHILADELPHIA MISSISSIPPI______
Prison population (as a % of population) have (a) decreased slightly (b) stayed about same (c) doubled (d) tripled (e) more than quadrupled – 6 OR 7 TIMES between 1971 and now.
This change indicates a shift from (a) Progressive (b) Social Darwinist thinking to (a) progressive (b) Social Darwinist thinking.
In the late 1960’s SNCC and Stokley Carmichael moved from non-violent direct action to
_BLACK POWER which had the slogan _POWER FROM THE BARREL OF A GUN
Courts went beyond the intent of the Civil Rights act to mandate _BUSSING_
to achieve school desegregation. Unpopular with both Blacks and whites, it created a backlash.
Courts also encouraged the creation of _MAJORITY-MINORITY DISTRICTS _
in reapportionment. This had the unintended result of polarizing political debate in the House of Representatives by concentrating polarized political views in different districts.
Quiz 11 17 What feature of US society is correlated with high percentages of incarceration and harsh sentences in other countries? HUGE INEQUALITY OF WEALTH SUCH AS IN Brazil or Mexico where rich life in fortified enclaves (gated communities on steroids) _
A recent quiz of members of leading Republican members of Congressional intelligence committees revealed that they still don’t really understand the difference between
_SHIITE_ and _SUNNI_ which is critical for understanding the course of the war in Iraq.
One way inequality in US increased very recently was a shift in tax load FROM. taxes collected by _FEDERAL GOVERNMENT_ TO taxes collected by _STATES_
In taxes collected second way, poorest 20% of population pay tax rates (a) ½ (b) ¾ (c) about same (d) twice (EVEN HIGHER IN Tennessee) the rate of the wealthiest 20%.
Diem and Nhu in South Vietnam were proposing PEACE NEGOTIATIONS WITH VIET- CONG (South Vietnamese indigenous resistance)_ just before Diem was assassinated.
The “Fraternity Initiation” effect means that most people get more committed to a cause
or organization the more they have to _SUFFER_ for it.
Charles DeGaule was so afraid of the effects of fighting a Guerilla war that at the end of the Algerian War he __TURNED THE NAMES OF MANY WHO HAD FOUGHT FOR THE FRENCH OVER TO THE ALGERIAN REBELS
In “Rewarding the Hereditary Elite” the author argues that repealing _INHERITANCE TAXES__ goes against the fundamental American principle of __MERITOCRACY_ & that
by increasing the gap between __SOCIAL CLASSES or RICH & POOR _
it is thus wasting __ TALENT _(POOR GUYS INVENT COOL STUFF OFTEN) .
The infant mortality rate in Washington DC is (a) ½ (b) about the same (c) 2 times
the rate in Bejing China.
What expense is most important in driving American Auto companies to move production to Canada? __HEALTH CARE COSTS __ (TWICE AS HIGH IN US AS IN COUNTRIES WHERE UNIVERSAL CARE IS PAID FOR BY TAXES )
In 1970 America had the least _WEALTH INEQUALITY_ of any country in the developed world in 1970, now it has the most.
The average Black family has about (a) 1/5 (b)40% (c) 60% (d) about same wealth as an average White family.
In the last four years the indebtedness of US households has (a) decreased 1/3 (b) stayed about the same (c) increased 1/3
When asked if the government usually did the right thing, (a) 90% (b) 70% (c) 50% (d) 30% of Americans said YES in 1960.
Between then and now this number is (a) up 10% (b) down 10% (c) down over 30%
Mention briefly 4 court decisions which are factors in this change by motivating the “Traditional values” or “Civil Rights” backlash or by increasing polarization Prayer in School, Brown vs Board of Education, Roe Vs Wade, Miranda Rights (against self incrimination – protects criminals)
Describe a change in the Civil Rights Movement leadership that helped drive a backlash against civil-rights. FROM POLITE MIDDLE-CLASS PREACHERS USING CHRISTIAN & PATRIOTIC RHETORIC AND NON-VIOLENCE TO RADICAL ANGRY “POWER FROM THE BARREL OF A GUN” RADICALS.
Mention two other things that made people cynical about politics. WATERGATE, VIETNAM DECEPTIONS, CHURCH INVESTIGATIONS OF CIA COUPS, ASSASSINATIONS & OLIVER-STONISH-STORIES
Wedge politics work by making politics nasty and thus driving down__VOTER TURNOUT ___
and motivating a small group by making them __ ANGRY_ or _FEARFUL_
How did Nixon & Kissinger impede a possible Vietnam peace settlement in 1968. SENDING EMISSARY TO SOUTH VIET LEADERS TELLING THEM NOT TO SETTLE, NIXON WOULD GET THEM BETTER TERMS LATER

Overthrow Questions & Answers

Overthrow Chapter 8 “We’re Going to Smash Him”
How did Richard Nixon’s views of Latin American Policy differ from JFK’s
JFK: “Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable.” “To those people in the huts and villages of half the globe struggling to break the bonds of mass misery, we pledge our best efforts to help them help themselves, for whatever period is required — not because the communists may be doing it, not because we seek their votes, but because it is right. If a free society cannot help the many who are poor, it cannot save the few who are rich.” Alliance for Progress – land reform, progressive taxation, support democratic left. Nixon – former corporate lawyer supports business elite he worked for & military which protects their interests & property
How did Henry Kissinger’s foreign policy views & actions reflect American ideals like the rule of law, human rights and democracy?
Concerned with stability and big-power balance of forces, & US credibility. Knows and cares nothing for the southern part of the world. If a few hundred thousand peasants have to die …. He’s worried about US USSR China nuclear war etc. US credibility is key. Convinced of usefulness of nuclear weapons in war (vs Ike) At one point wants Nixon to appear irrational to scare Soviets in Viet. Turned blind eye to oppression & inequality if “anti-commie” Democracy and Human rights are irrelevant.
What made the US determined to remove Allende & what were similar earlier precedents?
Allende wanted control of his country’s resources – copper and communications – and multi national corporations owned them. Earlier we grabbed Panama to build the canal & overthrew social democratic government in Guatemala at behest of United Fruit, because their unused land was going to be redistributed (after paying them) Taft “dollar diplomacy” also overthrew governments for benefit of US corporations or not .
How did the US plan to get rid of Allende bloodlessly & how well did that work?
We funneled $ to anti-commie “civic groups” and rightist candidates & planted anti-Allende stories in the press. It didn’t work, Allende won a plurality in the election. After that a campaign of “economic, political & psychological warfare” cut off loans and credit, to create disastrous financial situation. CIA helped spread rumors of food rationing, bank collapses, (false) plans to seize private homes. US stopped spare parts deliveries, putting - 1/3 buses and 20% taxis out of service in 2 years trying to “condemn Chilean people to deprivation and poverty”. We supported fascist paramilitary organizations, black-ops. A trucking strike supported by CIA stops food delivery. Military officers who believe in democracy & constitution were assassinated. Military coup kills Allende SEPTEMBER 11, 1973
A GRAVEYARD SMELL
What did American leaders believe about leaders in Iran, Guatemala & Chile and what was the reality? Kremlin directs a unified world-wide conspiracy. If a nationalist leader is not with us he’s against us. They will inevitably be puppets of the Kremlin. Turned out that there was no evidence of any Soviet manipulation and we got rid of leaders who shared American values in Iran & Guatemala. Allende was more radical, but was democratically elected and far from a Soviet puppet.
How did earlier experiences shape American views?
Nazi aggression before WWII was appeased with disastrous results. Nationalists & social democrats were seen as tools of the Soviets and thus forceful resistance was necessary.
How did our treatment of Africa & Latin America differ from how we treated Europe & Japan?
We allowed Europeans to have New Deal style governments, land reform, labor unions and democracy. We overthrew this kind of government in Guatemala or Africa, demanding pure anti-Communism and often supporting thugs and genocide.
Why did John Foster Dulles’ act in Guatemala? How did Dulles’ actions reflect American Ideals? Results? The Guatemalans wanted land reform (as in Germany & Japan) and Dulles cared much more about United Fruit, which he had represented. Dulles was a Nazi supporter earlier, and a strong Social Darwinist with little sympathy for democracy or social justice.
What effect did the coup in Iran in 1954 have on Iran since & the Middle East now? Iran has a fundamentalist government with a huge grudge and paranoia against US. They’re probably trying to get nukes in part because the B43’s have refused to talk and have threatened them. . Iran tried to talk after 9-11 and they’ve helped us against Taliban & other terror after 9-11.
What effects did American actions in Guatemala & Chile have on politics in Latin America?
As JFK predicted it made many fear going the democratic route. Che Guevara was in Guatemala and Castro has used our actions there as an excuse for his authoritarianism.
They Will Have Flies Walking Across Their Eyeballs
(1) What did the Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 make America fear?
Soviets were being aggressive and expansionist, taking advantage of our setback in Iran.
(2) What did the Soviets fear? Their Islamic southern republics (“Turkmenistan, Khazakstan & other “stan’s”) would follow the Iranian example and revolt against Soviet colonial masters.
(3) What did US do to make life for Soviets in Afghanistan more miserable? Provide huge amounts of weapons and supplies thru Pakistanis. Carter a little, Reagan goes crazy.
(4) Who did we have to cooperate with to do this & what were features of our “subcontractors” which turned out to be problematic in the long run? We had to cooperate with an increasingly fundamentalist & undemocratic Pakistan which was making and proliferating nukes. We made the Pakistanis build up Islamic fundamentalists, and made the Saudi’s give the fundamentalists money – which was funneled through Bin Laden.
(5) What was the long term result? Who did we end up financing? Reagan helped empower Bin Laden whose thinking has created a world-wide network. 9-11 & the Cole attack and much other terror has resulted, helped a lot by Iraq II.
(6) Why was the US so forgiving of the Taliban before the Africa Embassy bombings? We were hoping to have oil pipeline built through Afghanistan.
Ch 13 THUNDER RUN
(7) Why did Richard Clark have a hard time getting a serious hearing on the threat of Osama Bin Laden in 2001? George Bush doesn’t like complex situations or having to decide disagreements. If there was a meeting there would be disagreement over whether to focus on Iraq or Bin Laden, How did Paul O’Neill describe the situation? We had decided to go after Iraq regardless of any lack of evidence. What was the evidence for Wolfowitz’s views? There was no evidence that Iraq had helped terrorists.
(8) What was the plan for what to do after Thunder Run & what were the expected troop levels in Iraq 60 days after “Thunder Run”? We’d leave quickly and there would only be 30,000 troops after 60 days
(9) What was the Powell Doctrine & who was publicly reprimanded for testifying that it was wise?
Always go in with overwhelming force to make sure chaos does not ensue. Commit whole country with serious debate and commitment of resources. Shinseki was reprimanded & retired.
(10) Who detested the Powell Doctrine and won the debate? Rumsfeld, who believed Iraq could be done with 80,000 troops. Rumsfeld called the Pentagon Bureaucracy our biggest enemy and reprimanded General Shinseki and any other generals who wanted to talk about postwar difficulties. He and B43 remained in denial as reports of an insurgency and then a civil war came more and more persistently from people on the ground.
(11) What country supported Sadaam Hussein strongly in the 1980’s, saving him from defeat when he was doing most of his killing & using poison gas? United States. Who was the Representative of that country? Don Rumsfeld.
(12) Who warned B43 most strongly against attacking Sadaam? Who was he connected to & what did he say? Brent Scocroft who was Bush41’s National Security Advisor. He said it would distract us from the war on terror, be a big gift to Bin Laden, and hurt desperately needed international co-operation against terror. CIA estimates confirm his predictions and then some on recruiting terrorists and we’ve dramatically strengthened the real threat, Iran.
CHAPTER 14 CATASTROPHIC SUCCESS
(13) What did B43 have in common with McKinley when he grabbed the Phillipines? B43 knew very little about Iraq and his administration ignores those who did know, in the Iraq Study Group. B43 believed he was guided by God and involved in a fight between good and evil, so didn’t need to know about culture and identity, such as the differences and conflicts between Shiite & Sunni, which has led to the current civil war. B43 expected US forces would be greeted as liberators and have an easy quick triumph.
(14) What happened to nation re-building in Afghanistan & Why? Reagan ignored Agfhanistan after helping blow it up. Perhaps if “government is the problem” rebuilding good governance is unimportant. B43 was too eager to invade Iraq to invest much time or money in Afghanistan. Both disliked the kind of nation building we did in Japan or Germany. It would also have required cooperation and sharing authority with the UN & Europeans and both Reagan & B43 believed America was uniquely holy and should “go it alone”.
(15) What happened to planning for the post-war in Iraq? It was squelched by Rumsfeld & Cheney. They also, against all advice, allowed the disbanding of the Iraqi army and government, guaranteeing many angry armed men and chaos. Hiring political partisans with no experience also crippled reconstruction planning & execution.
(16) What is the usual effect of “regime change” on American security?
Usually leads to disorder & decreased security because some presidents, don’t care or don’t have the attention span to rebuild. We also sometimes support thugs against JFK’s warning.
(17) Why are corporations so powerful in America & where have their effects been felt in “overthrow” operations? Social Darwinist doctrine (Laissez Faire, Friedman Hayek etc) strong. Lack of progressive or socialist tradition because of ethnic & religious differences stop solidarity), Jeffersonian tradition of suspicion of government
(18) What have been the results in oppressive or threatening regimes of engagement, punishments & rewards instead of overthrow? Engagement and pressure works, overthrow or infantile “not-talking-to-evil” fails. Examples North Korea (Plutonium under UN inspection 24/7 until B43 breaks off relations and threatens), Vietnam started slowly turning capitalist and became a buffer against China when we got out of the way. Cuba has kept Castro almost 50 years. With US engagement would be much better chance of change. With an implacable enemy threatening, authoritarians have an excuse to be authoritarian. China has opened up more and more as she engages with us and the world. Paranoia and violence like Dulles generates the same.
Neatest example of difference Human Rights International Law Progressives and Neoconservatives Manichean good-versus-evil torture-law-be-damned was when Dick Cheney used the Salvador Option death-squads-secret-murder (instead of progressive rebuilding of Germany & Japan as -pacifist-egalitarian-countries) as Iraq model